Cerra and dayal-gulati (1999) and yue and hua (2002) find evidence that china's exports have become more responsive to exchange rate movements over time, whereas xu (2002) finds the opposite. See cerra and saxena (2008) and reinhardt and rogoff (2009)  loans to shipbuilders and shipping companies are important to banking systems in some other countries, including germany, greece and south korea. Rranbp conference „potential output and barriers to growth zalesie górne 2003 alternative methods of estimating potential output and the output gap: an application to sweden. Compare/contrast of invictus and anthem the story of invictus and anthem have many common themes but they are also very different in many ways. For instance, cerra and saxena (2005a) demonstrate that six asian countries suffered permanent output loss from the asian crisis, and cerra and saxena (2005b) show that only a tiny fraction of the output loss from sweden's banking crisis in the early 1990s was recuperated.
That recessions have a permanent effect on the level of future gdp (see, eg, cerra and saxena, 2008), which implies that running fiscal deficits (and increasing debt) may have a positive effect on output in both the short and the long run. The papers by cerra and saxena (2008) and furceri and mourougane (2009), hereafter referred to as cs and fm, form a natural comparison pair because both adopt a similar methodology, namely estimating an autoregressive panel model to explain gdp growth. The paper investigates whether indonesia's recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks (monsoons), or contagion from neighboring countries.
Cerra valerie and anuradha dayal-gulati (1999) china`s trade flows: changing price sensitivities and the reform process' imf working paper no 99/1, january cerra valerie and sweta c saxena (2003) 'did output recover from the asian crisis. 2 preliminary draft booms, crises, and recoveries a new paradigm and its policy implications valerie cerra and sweta c saxena international monetary fund abstract this paper builds on our work on booms, crises, and recoveries (cerra and saxena, aer. Valerie cerra & sweta chaman saxena, 2014 out-of-sample performance of the macroeconomic balance approach to the real exchange rate in sub-saharan africa , journal of african economies , centre for the study of african economies (csae), vol 23(3), pages 346-360. Valerie cerra & ugo panizza & sweta c saxena, 2013 international evidence on recovery from recessions , contemporary economic policy , western economic association international, vol 31(2), pages 424-439, april.
We revisit the dramatic failure of monetary models in explaining exchange rate movements using the information content from 98 countries, we find strong evidence for cointegration between nominal. The paper investigates whether indonesia's recent currency crisis was due to domestic fundamentals, common external shocks (monsoons), or contagion from neighboring countries markov switching models attribute speculative pressure on indonesia's currency to domestic political and financial. There's a danger of a vicious circle of low investment, consumption, hiring and innovating, cerra and saxena said in an email there are other trends working in the same direction. Credit supply and productivity growth francesco manaresi nicola pierri§ abstract we study the impact of bank credit supply on ﬁrm productivity we exploit a matched. It's true that cerra and saxena don't apply their theory to the stock market their focus is on the nature of the business cycle still, their analysis — if corroborated by others — has.
Which model best explains the 1991 currency crisis in india did real overvaluation contribute to the crisis valerie cerra sweta chaman saxena there are no. 3 1 introduction recovery from the recessions that occurred across advanced economies in the wake of the credit crisis of 2007/8 was a slow process, and in many economies a key feature of the recovery. The bis hosts nine international organisations engaged in standard setting and the pursuit of financial stability through the basel process. Emerging markets, some recent studies (eg, cerra and saxena, 2005a) document that financial crises lead to long-run losses in the level of output of the affected countries if. Cerra valerie and sweta c saxena 2008 growth dynamics the myth of economic from macroecono 2015 at ritsumeikan university - biwako-kusatsu campus.
Regime-switching models may 18, 2005 james d hamilton department of economics, 0508 university of california, san diego la jolla, ca 92093-0508 [email protected] Which model best explains the 1991 currency crisis in india did real overvaluation contribute to the crisis valerie cerra cerra, valerie and saxena, sweta. (cerra and saxena, 2010) builded up panel monetary model, and find predictability of exchange rates for annual data we apply the growth rate data into a panel monetary model that allow for cross-sectional dependence, and extend predictability of exchange rates to monthly and quarterly level.
Relationship between governance and growth during crises will encourage ios to adopt long-term strategies of promoting global good governance practices that are not adversely affected by crises. 4 valerie cerra and sweta c saxena, growth dynamics: the myth of economic recovery, american economic review, vol 98, no 1 (2008) 5 the world bank, world development report 2011 , 5. Extreme economic events have often challenged existing views of how the economy works and exposed shortcomings in the collective knowledge of economists.